We CAN take back Congress for Democrats this November:
Let’s take a look at what the data is telling us right now…
– The Generic Ballot – Poll after poll shows Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot – the single best predictor of which party wins Congress. A recent Emerson College poll found Democrats leading Republicans 50% to 40% – a 10-point margin. Earlier this month, Morning Consult showed Democrats leading 45% to 42% among registered voters – a 5-point net swing from the Republican advantage at the start of Trump's second term. |
– U.S. House of Representatives – Cook Political Report now has Democrats with 213 lean, likely, and solid seats to Republicans' 205, with just 17 toss-ups – meaning Republicans would need to sweep over 75% of toss-ups just to hold on. The special election results since 2024 show us that we can have hope. Since Trump's return to the White House, Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats in special elections to Republicans' zero. In every special election held so far this cycle, Republicans lost ground compared to their 2024 results – even in districts they won. |
– U.S. Senate – Cook Political Report recently shifted FOUR U.S. Senate ratings in Democrats' direction – moving North Carolina and Georgia from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat, and Ohio from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. And on the money front, Democratic candidates are outraising Republicans in key contests that will decide the Senate majority – with James Talarico, Mary Peltola, Sherrod Brown, and Roy Cooper all vastly outpacing their Republican opponents. |
– The Enthusiasm Gap – Democrats hold a wide advantage in voter enthusiasm over Republicans heading into November, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. A CNN/SSRS poll from April found 84% of Democratic voters describing themselves as "very" or "extremely motivated" to vote — compared to just 74% of Republicans. Democratic-leaning voters are 17 points more likely than GOP voters to describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote. And more than three-quarters of voters who plan to support Democrats say their vote is a direct message of opposition to Donald Trump. |
The data doesn't lie. The environment is ripe. Our momentum is real. But polls don't vote – and campaigns need resources to turn numbers like these into actual wins on Election Night.
Will you chip in $15 or whatever you can today to help us finish the job?
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We've got the wind at our backs. Let's not waste it.
– SDC HQ
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